When the French president, Emmanuel Macron, announced he would withdraw France’s ambassador and troops from Niger after a military takeover, the new regime welcomed a historic step forward for the country.
“Imperialist and neocolonialist forces are no longer welcome on our national territory,” it said. “The new era of cooperation, based on mutual respect and sovereignty, is already under way.”
The statement was revealing. It made little reference to the multiple security threats Niger faces, preferring language that evoked the historical relationship of an African country with its former colonial ruler and the importance of being seen as an equal partner.
Macron has recognised the often dark history of France in Africa as a threat to his diplomatic efforts to win friends and influence amid more intense power competition on the continent. He has tried to tackle individual issues, including asking for forgiveness in Rwanda, a former Belgian colony whose government has long accused France of complicity in the killing of about 800,000 mostly Tutsi Rwandans in 1994. Macron has also approached leaders in anglophone countries where Paris has traditionally had less influence, such as South Africa.
But this has not prevented a sudden deterioration of France’s position in Africa, with significant consequences for security on the continent.
The leaders of Central African Republic turned to Russia five years ago after deciding that France, the former colonial power, was unwilling to protect them against rebels. The country remains desperately poor and prey to anarchic violence, and is exploited for its vast resources by foreigners. The Kremlin-linked Wagner group profits from exports of timber, gold and diamonds, while its mercenaries are paid large sums to brutalise local populations. The last contingent of French troops left last year.
In Mali, violence has surged since military regimes took over in 2020. The deal cut by the new rulers with Wagner forced Paris to end the deployment of thousands of French troops that had fought Islamist extremists and other insurgents for a decade. In the last two years, with 1,000 Wagner mercenaries now in Mali, atrocities have multiplied, accelerating a negative feedback loop of abuses, recruitment to jihadist groups, more attacks and more abuses.
In Burkina Faso, where French forces were told to leave after a military takeover last year, the number of people killed by militant Islamist violence has nearly tripled compared with the 18 months before. “This violence … puts Burkina Faso more than ever at the brink of collapse,” said the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in a recent report.
Now warning lights are flashing red in Niger too, once considered one of the most stable states in the Sahel.
During the month after Niger’s military seized power, extremist-linked violence increased by more than 40%, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. At least 29 Nigerien soldiers were killed by jihadists on the border with Mali last weekend by more than 100 extremists using homemade explosives. It was the second such attack in a week.
France had approximately 1,500 troops based in Niger, which had become a central hub for the its counterinsurgency campaign across the Sahel. These provided potent capabilities in terms of firepower and training, but also communications and intelligence gathering. This makes it harder to replace this presence.
However, Italian and German troops remain in Niger and the senior soldiers now in power in Niamey, the capital, have not asked for the 1,000 US troops based there to leave, nor for evacuation of its hugely expensive drone base in Agadez.
Analysts say the US, which is reluctant to leave Niger open to Russian influence, has played a better diplomatic game, building more durable relationships with key Nigerien generals and negotiating with the military regime without labelling the takeover a coup d’état. France’s refusal to recognise Niger’s new rulers and support for the democratically elected president – however principled – has added insult to injury.
“It may not be a very good idea to kick [the French] out in such a manner but if is perfectly understandable that the regime felt that nothing would change in their relationship with Paris unless they took such a step,” said Olayinka Ajala, an expert on West Africa and the Sahel at Leeds Beckett University.
Across Africa, France is now reaping the consequences of decades of self-interested interference and commercial greed in their former colonies at a moment of widespread and vocal resentment of the western nations that exploited the continent for so long.
The wave of anger is being exacerbated by Russian propaganda, and is a potent tool in the hands of the new military regimes who are seeking to legitimise their grip on power after ousting elected governments, say analysts.
“This allows them to get badly needed popular support,” said Ajala.
Paris remains unrepentant. “All this will end very badly for the juntas in question,” Sébastien Lecornu, the French armed forces minister said last week. “It is their failure.”