Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed.
Food and water supplies are running short in Khartoum, diplomats are being airlifted to safety, civilians are fleeing and 11 days into Sudan’s war, there isn’t a clear prospect for strong mediation yet.
The fighting has set back north African nation’s path to democracy. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who controls the armed forces, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who heads the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have been less inclined to negotiate as they seek to gain an advantage on the battlefield, diplomats say.
The US announced the fighters agreed to a three-day cease fire, which citizens hope holds. The previous one didn’t.
Uneasy Calm in Sudan
The region has a population of about 360 million
Source: United Nations Population Fund
Neighboring states, Gulf nations and western powers continue to implore the warring sides to end the fighting that’s killed more than 420 people. The consensus is that the Western efforts to shepherd one of Africa’s biggest nations toward civilian rule following the ousting of dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 have flailed.
The roots of the crisis lie in the way the post-coup process has been handled. Former warlord Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, saw his status elevated in the latest transitional agreement, but was also asked to integrate his forces into the national army, a step that meant losing some control. Meanwhile al-Burhan’s army has shown little commitment to democracy.
“They’ve never reconciled their divergent economic and political interests,” Benjamin Hunter, an analyst at Verisk Maplecroft wrote of the two leaders. “Hemedti and al-Burhan are fundamentally opposed and show no signs of backing down.”
Civil-society groups are calling for academics and civilian politicians to lead mediation. The African Union is also looking for solutions but its track record in resolving conflicts has been below par.
A protracted conflict is likely, if those calls aren’t heeded. That means more instability in a region regularly wracked by war.
— Simon Marks & Antony Sguazzin
News Roundup
Concerns that Kenya is heading toward default are ramping up. The extra yield investors demand to hold the nation’s dollar bonds over US Treasuries indicated a rise to a level widely considered by bond traders as distressed. Kenya has a principal payment of $2 billion due next year, compared with foreign reserves of about $6.3 billion. The government has delayed paying civil servants amid financing constraints.
It was meant to be the climate justice blueprint, showing how rich countries could help developing economies end their reliance on coal and go green. Almost 18 months on, South Africa’s $8.5 billion transition showpiece looks more like a cautionary tale. Only one coal-fired power plant has been closed since the so-called Just Energy Transition Partnership was unveiled at the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow. Now, some of the country’s politicians are pushing to keep others open longer than planned.
Zimbabwe needs $100 million of gold to kick-start its proposed bullion-backed digital currency, as the southern African nation makes another attempt to stabilize its dollar. The central bank will rely on gold reserves, which it has been accumulating, to support the initiative and stem the local currency’s volatility. Zimbabwe has been struggling to stem a decline in its dollar in the nation where the US currency is the unit of choice.
Democratic Republic of Congo’s vision of earning billions of dollars in revenue from dozens of landlocked oil blocks will remain distant without a connection to a lone export route to be operated by TotalEnergies. Congo has for decades watched neighbor Uganda discover and develop oil fields while some of its own were left untouched. Now, it risks missing out on the chance to bolster its petroleum industry if it can’t secure access to the planned East African Crude Oil Pipeline that will connect landlocked reservoirs to global markets.
Nineteen countries expressed an interest in joining the BRICS group of nations ahead of an annual summit in South Africa. The emerging-markets bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa will meet in Cape Town in June to discuss its enlargement after China initiated the conversation when it was the chair last year. The world’s second-biggest economy wants to use the platform to build diplomatic clout and counter the dominance of developed countries in the United Nations.
Chart of the Week
The extra yield investors demand to hold Kenya’s dollar bonds over US Treasuries indicated a rise to above the 1,000 level widely considered by bond traders as distressed. Yields on dollar bonds due 2028 climbed to 14.6%, on track for a 14th consecutive day of increases.
Source: bloomberg